Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 394 km/s at 12/2219Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 13/0132Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/1230Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1132 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Sep) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 118 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 120/115/115 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 016/020-013/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/08 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 162.7 +70.9 |
| Last 30 days | 108 +13.3 |