Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep,
17 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 14/2042Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 14/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/1735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1572 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (15 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (16 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Sep 122 Predicted 15 Sep-17 Sep 125/120/125 90 Day Mean 14 Sep 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Sep 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep 015/020-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/05 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Last 30 days | 124.4 +17 |