Viewing archive of Monday, 29 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 29/0622Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 29/0602Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 29/0701Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 336 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (02 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 186 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 180/180/175 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 013/015-009/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.4 +13.7 |