Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 September 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Sep 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 744 km/s at 30/1921Z. Total
IMF reached 20 nT at 30/1139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -17 nT at 30/0453Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 413 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Oct), unsettled
to active levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (03 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Sep 187 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 013/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 040/064 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 021/027-014/018-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct to 03 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 55% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 117.9 -6.1 |
| Last 30 days | 121.4 +11.9 |