Viewing archive of Friday, 3 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(04 Oct, 05 Oct, 06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1152 km/s at 02/2130Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 03/0625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-5 nT at 03/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 7331 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (04 Oct, 06 Oct)
and unsettled to active levels on day two (05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 170 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 030/045 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 023/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 015/018-014/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 55% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 107.3 +14.6 |