Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 861 km/s at 02/1234Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 02/0433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 02/0352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3601 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 167 Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 02 Oct 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 025/050 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 036/051 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 018/025-015/018-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct to 05 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 40% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 19 January 2026
CME impact! S4 solar radiation storm
Sunday, 18 January 2026
X1.9 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Wednesday, 31 December 2025
Happy New Year! Celebrate with an M7.1 solar flare!
Latest forum messages
Current Farside Activity 339New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 66Filaments and prominences 474Broad-spectrum aurora pillars 11Solar Transit, Artifacts, or Radiation 79
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 119.4 -4.6 |
| Last 30 days | 121.1 +6.3 |