Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct,
12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 1124 km/s at 08/2325Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at
09/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/1845Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5051 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Oct), quiet to active levels on day
two (11 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 122 Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 130/130/125 90 Day Mean 09 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 009/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 006/005-011/015-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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