Viewing archive of Wednesday, 8 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (09 Oct) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (10 Oct,
11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 08/0154Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 07/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 4951 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet levels on
day two (10 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (11 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| Class M | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 120 Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 08 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 014/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 014/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 009/008-006/005-010/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 117.9 -6.1 |
| Last 30 days | 121.2 +12.1 |