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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 946 km/s at 12/2315Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 12/2106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 12/2345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4077 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct) and
unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 141 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 018/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 011/012-008/012-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 45% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/04/24 | X2.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/06/02 | M3.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/05/16 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| June 2026 | 146 +66.7 |
| Last 30 days | 96.6 +4 |
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