Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 15 1310 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 742 km/s at 14/0146Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/1938Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/0019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 5134 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Oct), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (16 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (17 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one, two, and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct, 17 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Oct 154 Predicted 15 Oct-17 Oct 155/160/160 90 Day Mean 14 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct 017/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 008/012-020/028-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct to 17 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 40% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 20% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 75% | 65% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 1 December 2025
X1.9 solar flare, Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 14 November 2025
X4.0 solar flare
Tuesday, 11 November 2025
X5.1 solar flare, G4 geomagnetic storm watch
Latest forum messages
AR4294 / 4296 / 4298 297AR 4299 24Current Farside Activity 236Unspecified geomagnetic activity 40Space Weather Memes 760
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/04 | M6.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 186 +94.2 |
| Last 30 days | 106.3 +12.6 |