Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Oct,
18 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 498 km/s at 15/2235Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
16/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3769 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 161 Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 162/165/155 90 Day Mean 16 Oct 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 014/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 019/025-013/016-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct to 19 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 50% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 114.4 -9.6 |
| Last 30 days | 118.1 +9.1 |