Viewing archive of Wednesday, 15 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 15/0558Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/2317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2846 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (16 Oct), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (18 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Oct 162 Predicted 16 Oct-18 Oct 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 15 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 020/028-019/025-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/06/03 | X1.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/06/21 | M6.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/06/11 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | 101.4 +22.1 |
| June 2026 | 99.1 -2.3 |
| Last 30 days | 107.7 +10.8 |
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