Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 October 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 617 km/s at 20/2247Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
21/0055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 381 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 Oct) and quiet levels
on days two and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a chance of crossing threshold on day one (22 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 133 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 135/135/140 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/01 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/06 | M8.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/04 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 175.4 +83.6 |
| Last 30 days | 106.4 +12.9 |