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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Oct 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (23
Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 524 km/s at 21/2210Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
22/1757Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
22/2031Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 22/1030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 446 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (23 Oct, 24 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (25 Oct). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (23 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 133 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 135/140/140 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 006/005-006/005-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/19 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/19 | Kp9- (G4) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 103.8 -20.2 |
| Last 30 days | 109.8 +2 |