Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 November 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Nov 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (17 Nov) and likely
to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (18 Nov)
and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 727 km/s at 16/0850Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 16/0519Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 16/0422Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 555 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| Class M | 55% | 20% | 10% |
| Class X | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 132 Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 16 Nov 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 017/022-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov to 19 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 45% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/21 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 110 -14 |
| Last 30 days | 114.8 +6.7 |