Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 November 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Nov 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (16 Nov,
17 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 648 km/s at 15/0946Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/2213Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1718Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 15/0120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 571 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Nov), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (17 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (16 Nov) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (17 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 55% | 40% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Nov 132 Predicted 16 Nov-18 Nov 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 15 Nov 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov 011/015-017/022-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 65% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
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| Last 30 days | 120.4 +5.6 |