Viewing archive of Friday, 5 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 748 km/s at 05/0710Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 05/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/1917Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1425 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Dec,
07 Dec, 08 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Dec 206 Predicted 06 Dec-08 Dec 205/205/200 90 Day Mean 05 Dec 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec 024/032 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec 010/012-012/018-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec to 08 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/21 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 110 -14 |
| Last 30 days | 114.8 +6.7 |