Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 1 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Jan, 03 Jan, 04 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 549 km/s at 01/1710Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/0858Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
01/0601Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1918 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (02 Jan), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (03 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (04 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day one (02 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
two and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jan 169 Predicted 02 Jan-04 Jan 168/166/160 90 Day Mean 01 Jan 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Dec 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jan 016/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jan-04 Jan 014/016-028/042-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jan to 04 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 40% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 25% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 85% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| March 2026 | 75 -3.2 |
| Last 30 days | 55.6 -70.1 |