Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec,
17 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 701 km/s at 13/2230Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/0122Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
14/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 378 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec,
16 Dec, 17 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 119 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 010/010-008/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2026/02/09 | M2.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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