Viewing archive of Monday, 15 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 556 km/s at 14/2119Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 15/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1327Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 809 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Dec), quiet to active
levels on day two (17 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (18 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Dec 118 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 120/120/118 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 008/008-013/015-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec to 18 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 50% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/12/08 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/12/21 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/12/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| November 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| December 2025 | 118.5 +26.7 |
| Last 30 days | 108.7 +20.4 |