Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Dec, 23 Dec,
24 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 723 km/s at 21/2028Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 21/1128Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 21/0544Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2257 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (23 Dec) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (24 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 124 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 016/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 019/028-015/022-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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