Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate on
days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 794 km/s at 17/1050Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 17/0003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 17/0114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 2762 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (19 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day
three (20 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 159 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 160/160/165 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 017/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 022/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 020/024-017/020-012/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 50% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 119.1 -4.9 |
| Last 30 days | 122.3 +12.7 |