Viewing archive of Saturday, 27 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed slowly decreasing from about 500 km/s to 460 km/s levels.
Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/1930Z. The maximum southward component of
Bz reached -5 nT at 27/1841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6,123 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (28
Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and
three (29 Dec, 30 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 178 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 175/170/160 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2026/02/11 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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