Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 616 km/s at 31/1506Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 31/1458Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
31/1158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (01 Jan, 02
Jan) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (03 Jan). Protons
have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (01 Jan), have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day two (02 Jan) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (03 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 171 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 014/018-014/016-028/042
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 65% | 85% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/21 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 110 -14 |
| Last 30 days | 114.8 +6.7 |