Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 3 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (04 Jan, 05 Jan, 06 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 683 km/s at 03/0431Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 02/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 03/0302Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1940 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (04 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (04 Jan,
05 Jan, 06 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Jan 165 Predicted 04 Jan-06 Jan 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 03 Jan 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Jan 016/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Jan 016/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Jan-06 Jan 015/018-010/008-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Jan to 06 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/28 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 119 -5 |
| Last 30 days | 119 +0.7 |