Viewing archive of Monday, 5 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 05/0118Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 05/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
05/0500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1595 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08
Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jan 154 Predicted 06 Jan-08 Jan 152/148/140 90 Day Mean 05 Jan 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jan 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| Last 30 days | 70.4 -48.3 |