Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 December 2025
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2025 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2025IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 671 km/s at 09/1305Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
09/1250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1572 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec,
11 Dec, 12 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (10 Dec) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day two (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 183 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 180/175/160 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 001/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 036/055 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 013/009-007/009-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/05 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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