Viewing archive of Friday, 16 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 16 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Jan, 18 Jan, 19 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 801 km/s at 16/1856Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 16/1138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 16/1418Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 8697 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Jan), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (18 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on
day three (19 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jan 148 Predicted 17 Jan-19 Jan 145/145/147 90 Day Mean 16 Jan 145
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jan 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jan 018/024 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jan-19 Jan 018/025-017/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jan to 19 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/01/18 | X1.9 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/01/21 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/01/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| January 2026 | 117.9 -6.1 |
| Last 30 days | 121.2 +12.1 |