Viewing archive of Monday, 19 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (20 Jan) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 18/2211Z according to ACE
and DSCOVR, but speeds are likely much higher. Total IMF reached 86 nT
at 19/1859Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -49 nT at
19/2035Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 36976 pfu at 19/1915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7877 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (20 Jan), quiet
to minor storm levels on day two (21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (22 Jan). Protons are remained above threshold on day one
to three (20-22 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 99% | 95% | 65% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jan 173 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 040/061 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 058/086-017/020-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 79% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/04/24 | X2.5 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/05/17 | M1.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/05/16 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| April 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| May 2026 | 90.4 +11.1 |
| Last 30 days | 99.3 +8.3 |
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