Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low on
days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 753 km/s at 15/1154Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 15/0832Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 14/2249Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 506 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 118 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 115/115/110 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 023/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 015/020-011/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 55% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Sunday, 1 February 2026
Complex sunspot region 4366
Monday, 19 January 2026
CME impact! S4 solar radiation storm
Sunday, 18 January 2026
X1.9 solar flare with earth-directed CME
Latest forum messages
CME March 1 22Comet C/2026 A1 (MAPS) for the southern hemisphere 11Unexplained proton activity 113Upper atmosphere phenomena Red sprites and Blue jets 45Filaments and prominences 503
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| March 2026 | 83.5 -29.1 |
| Last 30 days | 67.7 -52.1 |