Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 January 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jan 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 22 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jan 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Jan, 24 Jan, 25 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 679 km/s at 22/0011Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 22/1514Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/2053Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10 pfu at 22/0505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5365 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Jan,
24 Jan, 25 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jan 194 Predicted 23 Jan-25 Jan 192/192/190 90 Day Mean 22 Jan 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jan 045/073 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jan 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 011/012-009/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan to 25 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/05 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/05 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 139.3 +26.7 |
| Last 30 days | 124.9 +18 |