Viewing archive of Wednesday, 18 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 49 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (19 Feb) and expected to
be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three
(20 Feb, 21 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 17/2158Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 18/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
18/0417Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3801 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (21 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 119 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 120/120/115 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 007/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 009/012-009/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| March 2026 | 75 -3.2 |
| Last 30 days | 55.6 -70.1 |