Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 36 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Feb, 07
Feb, 08 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 659 km/s at 05/2036Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 05/0226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-16 nT at 05/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 743 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Feb) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (08 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (06 Feb, 07 Feb, 08 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 176 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 022/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 016/020-013/015-016/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/16 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/16 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 106.5 -6.1 |
| Last 30 days | 124.3 +22.3 |