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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 35 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Feb, 06
Feb, 07 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 481 km/s at 04/1948Z. Total IMF reached 23
nT at 04/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at
04/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 13970 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Feb), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (06 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (07 Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (05 Feb, 06 Feb, 07 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Feb 167 Predicted 05 Feb-07 Feb 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 04 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Feb 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Feb 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Feb-07 Feb 018/025-017/025-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Feb to 07 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/06/03 | X1.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/06/21 | M6.8 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/06/11 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (2%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| May 2026 | 101.4 +22.1 |
| June 2026 | 100.6 -0.8 |
| Last 30 days | 109.2 +10.9 |
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