Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 42 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (12
Feb, 13 Feb, 14 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 11/0749Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/0138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 940 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Feb, 13 Feb) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Feb 129 Predicted 12 Feb-14 Feb 130/120/115 90 Day Mean 11 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Feb 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Feb 013/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 006/005-006/005-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Feb to 14 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 75.5 -37.1 |
| Last 30 days | 81.7 -39.4 |