Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 41 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (11 Feb) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(12 Feb, 13 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 10/1818Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
10/1935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1,006 pfu at 10/1205Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (11 Feb, 12 Feb, 13
Feb). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (11 Feb),
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (12 Feb) and have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 55% |
| Class X | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Feb 142 Predicted 11 Feb-13 Feb 145/140/140 90 Day Mean 10 Feb 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Feb 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Feb 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Feb-13 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Feb to 13 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/16 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/16 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 103.9 -8.7 |
| Last 30 days | 120.3 +12.4 |