Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 14/0135Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 14/1949Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at
14/1953Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 926 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Feb), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (16 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (17 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 117 Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 14 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 008/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 019/025-016/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb to 17 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/16 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/16 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| February 2026 | 106.5 -6.1 |
| Last 30 days | 124.3 +22.3 |