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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 51 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Feb,
22 Feb, 23 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 540 km/s at 20/0914Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 20/1247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/1528Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 7442 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Feb), quiet levels on
day two (22 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Feb 111 Predicted 21 Feb-23 Feb 110/110/120 90 Day Mean 20 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Feb 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb 007/008-005/005-010/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/03 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| March 2026 | 75.5 -37.1 |
| Last 30 days | 61.4 -62.2 |