Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (22 Feb) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 570 km/s at 21/0905Z. Total IMF reached 15
nT at 20/2321Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
21/2027Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 841 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (22 Feb, 24 Feb)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (23 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 110 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 112/125/125 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 006/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 011/015-014/020-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/03/15 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/14 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (4%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| March 2026 | 83.6 +5.4 |
| Last 30 days | 58.7 -65.6 |