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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 734 km/s at 22/1136Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 21/2232Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 22/0144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1100 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (23 Feb), quiet to
active levels on day two (24 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Feb 110 Predicted 23 Feb-25 Feb 112/115/118 90 Day Mean 22 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Feb 028/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb 014/020-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| March 2026 | 85 -27.6 |
| Last 30 days | 67.1 -52.7 |