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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar) and
expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 661 km/s at 15/2145Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 16/1233Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
16/1133Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2212 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar)
and quiet to major storm levels on day three (19 Mar). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (19
Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 111 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 110/112/112 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 008/010-007/008-028/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/03/30 | X1.4 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/03/28 | M1.3 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/03/25 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (3%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| March 2026 | 88.4 +10.2 |
| Last 30 days | 88.4 +14.9 |
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