Viewing archive of Tuesday, 17 February 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 48 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb)
and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (20 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 707 km/s at 16/2130Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 16/2148Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
16/2203Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2214 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Feb, 19 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (20 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 122 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 023/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 013/015-009/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/02/04 | X4.21 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/02/25 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/02/22 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (5%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| January 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| Last 30 days | 72.7 -45.8 |