Viewing archive of Thursday, 16 July 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jul 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul,
19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed averaged near 400 km/s. Total IMF and Bz varied nominally
throughout the period. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 1548 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (17 Jul, 19 Jul) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (18 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jul 101 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 105/110/115 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 007/006-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul to 19 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/20 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (1%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 70.7 -23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 85.6 -20.4 |
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