Viewing archive of Friday, 17 July 2026
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2026 Jul 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2026IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jul,
19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 431 km/s, and the total IMF reached 5 nT. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1988 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 105 Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 17 Jul 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul NA/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 007/007-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul to 20 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2026/07/04 | X1.3 |
| Last M-flare | 2026/07/20 | M3.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2026/07/04 | Kp7+ (G3) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 days |
| 2026 | 3 days (1%) |
| Last spotless day | 2026/02/24 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| June 2026 | 94.4 -7.1 |
| July 2026 | 70.7 -23.7 |
| Last 30 days | 85.6 -20.4 |
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