Viewing archive of Monday, 15 April 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Apr 15 1229 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Apr 2013	114	007
16 Apr 2013	111	006
17 Apr 2013	108	004

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 43 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719, respectively) continue to decay although they still have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. No C-class flares were detected during the past 24 hours. We expect flaring activity on the low C-level, with an M-class flare being unlikely. The Earth is currently inside the magnetic cloud associated with the halo CME observed on the Sun on April 11. The magnetic cloud belongs to the ENW type (left-handed), and therefore does not contain southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Since the arrival of the shock driven by this magnetic cloud late on April 13, the IMF Bz component was steadily positive and the solar wind speed did not exceed 560 km/s, so no geomagnetic storm occurred (K index stayed below 4). Currently the solar wind speed is around 390 km/s and the IMF magnitude is around 9-10 nT. Unless the IMF turns strongly southward, which is unlikely, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 064, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Apr 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	117
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	076 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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