Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 May 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 May 12 1221 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 May 2013	142	011
13 May 2013	142	010
14 May 2013	139	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been eruptive during the past 24 hours, featuring eighteen C flares. The largest flare was released by NOAA AR 11746 and reached a C8.0 peak around 19:48 UT on May 11. More C flares and even M flares are likely within the next 48 hours, especially from NOAA AR 11744, 11745, and 11746. A large filament eruption took place near 40W 35N around 21:45 UT on May 11. An associated CME was registered by LASCO C2, STEREO COR2 A and B. A glancing blow from this CME is possible, with an expected arrival time at Earth in the first half of May 15. In the last 24 hours, the IMF has varied between 2.5 and 3.5 nT, while solar wind speeds have decreased from about 400 and to 360 km/s. In the second half of May 12, a weak coronal hole high speed stream may cause solar wind speeds to increase again up to 500 km/s. Geomagnetic activity has been at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for May 12 to 14, with a chance for active levels (K Dourbes = 4) in the second half of May 12, due to a weak coronal hole high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 094, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 11 May 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	089 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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