Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 15 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Oct 2013	125	016
16 Oct 2013	123	013
17 Oct 2013	122	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been moderate, many C-class flares were detected from AR 1865, 1861 and from an AR behind the east limb (related to a backsided partial halo CME on October 14 at 22:00 UT). NOAA AR 1865 produced an M1.1 flare with peak at 09:00 UT. There are clear dimmings as signs of a CME in SWAP and AIA data but no coronagraph images yet to confirm. Due to the location of this AR (S21 W16), an ejection has strong chances of being Earth-directed. As AR 1861 and 1865 are rotating into the western hemisphere of the Sun, the risk of proton events at Earth has increased, a warning condition has been set. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from unsettled to active due to the fast speed stream from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed is currently at 500 km/s and the magnetic field intensity around 5 nT. The effect of the coronal hole-related solar wind is expected to fade today, even though more active periods cannot be excluded. The possible arrival (estimated probability of 30%) of the CME from October 13 could raise the geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels late on October 16.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	041
AK Wingst	024
Estimated Ap	023
Estimated international sunspot number	096 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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