Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 October 2013

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2013 Oct 16 1306 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
16 Oct 2013	125	012
17 Oct 2013	125	010
18 Oct 2013	124	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been moderate, many C-class flares were detected from AR 1865, 1861. NOAA AR 1865 produced an M1.3 flare with peak time at 23:36 UT on October 15, no CME was associated with this flare. More M-class flares can be expected from these two active regions. The CME associated with the M1.8 flare from yesterday peaking at 08:38 UT is not expected to arrive to the Earth. Geomagnetic conditions have ranged from quiet to unsettled due to the fast speed stream from a coronal hole. The solar wind speed is currently at 480 km/s and the magnetic field intensity around 4 nT. We expect quiet conditions, except for the possible arrival (estimated probability of 30%) of the CME from October 13 that could raise the geomagnetic conditions up to storm levels late today.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 092, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 15 Oct 2013

Wolf number Catania	183
10cm solar flux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	022
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	103 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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