Viewing archive of Monday, 18 July 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Jul 18 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Jul 2016	107	003
19 Jul 2016	106	013
20 Jul 2016	105	013

Bulletin

The strongest event of the period was a long duration C6.6 flare over the middle and southern portions of NOAA 2567 peaking at 23:35UT. This region continued its magnetic interaction with NOAA 2565 resulting in two other low-level C-class flares over the inversion line between the two sunspot groups. A small new region (Catania 12) emerged in the northeast quadrant but is quiet.

Further C-class flares are expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare.

Coronal dimming was observed in the NOAA2565/2567 complex during the long duration C1 event from 17 July (peaking at 08:03UT). Coronagraphic imagery indicates that the associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were faint and slow, but may have had an earth-directed component. The arrival time of this complex chain of CMEs is currently estimated for 22 July around 00:00UT (+/- 12 hours).

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed. Solar wind parameters were at nominal values, with wind speed declining from 460 to 410 km/s. A negative coronal hole (CH; latitude +15 degrees) is currently transiting the central meridian (CM).

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected. The arrival of a high speed stream (HSS) from a negative CH on the southern hemisphere (-25 degrees) is possible on 19 or 20 July, which may result in active geomagnetic conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 067, based on 29 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Jul 2016

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	105
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	041 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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