Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 July 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Jul 19 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Jul 2016	106	005
20 Jul 2016	105	012
21 Jul 2016	104	021

Bulletin

The strongest flare of the period was a C1.0 flare in NOAA 2565, peaking at 00:22UT. Both NOAA 2565 and NOAA 2567 remained the most prominent sunspot groups on the solar disk. At the end of the reporting period, a long duration C2 event was in progress over the magnetic separation line between the two regions. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an isolated M-class flare.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed. Solar wind parameters were at nominal values, with wind speed declining further from 410 to 340 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) was mostly directed away from the Sun (positive). A negative coronal hole (CH; latitude +15 degrees) has almost finished its transit over the central meridian (CM).

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected. The arrival of a high speed stream (HSS) from a negative CH on the southern hemisphere (-25 degrees) is still possible today or on 20 July, which may result in an active geomagnetic episode. On 21 July, the earth-environment may see the arrival of the HSS from the northern CH, as well as the impact from the faint 17 July CMEs.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 064, based on 28 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Jul 2016

Wolf number Catania	088
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	068 - Based on 39 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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